Tuesday, 14 October 2025

A Lifelong Investment Plan for the Reluctant Investor

"Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein

This idea started as a 30 May 2014 post proposing a portfolio for a reluctant investor that can be carried through an entire lifetime from working and saving to retirement and spending. We updated it slightly on June 6th 2025, after finding that it worked fine during the ensuing eleven years! After doing a little more investigating, I've found an even simpler version that requires even less time and effort to manage yet should work just as well in terms of overall returns and stability.
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Drum roll ...
the new improved Reluctant Investor's Lifelong Portfolio and Investing Plan

1) Portfolio structure: The portfolio will consist of one fund -

XBAL is a fund that contains several other funds to achieve wide diversification in a classic 60/40 equity/fixed income mix, with an acceptably low MER of 0.20%

2) Account setup: Start with a TFSA. Open a TFSA account at a discount broker. Make it easy to contribute or withdraw money by using the broker offered by your bank. If you have less in total to invest than $102,000, which is the cumulative maximum contribution limit up to and including to 2025 that can be invested in a TFSA, put it all in the TFSA. When there is more than $102k to invest put the excess into an RRSP (another account that will need to be opened at a discount broker), up to the cumulative unused contribution limit shown on tax assessment letter from the Canada Revenue Agency that it sends out after you have filed your taxes every year. It you have more than the total limits of TFSA plus RRSP to invest (happy days!), open a taxable account.

3) Automate investing: Set up automatic transfers to contribute from your bank account to the TFSA/RRSP/taxable account if in savings mode, of course keeping in mind the contribution limits. Leave the transferred money in cash until there is at least $1000 to invest. Less than a $1000 for a trade and the commissions start to add up too much and hurt investment returns. Sign up for the automatic dividend reinvestment plan (DRIP) with the broker. This will have all of XBAL's interest and dividend distributions automatically used to buy more XBAL without any commission to pay. All of your money is thus constantly invested and not sitting as idle cash.

D
uring retirement, you will have to sell enough XBAL for the amount you want to withdraw.

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Historical Estimated Performance - To see what kind of performance the Reluctant Investor Portfolio would have provided, we again turn to the Stingy Investor Asset Mixer tool. We have approximated XBAL's holdings using Stingy's available assets. The biggest discrepancy is in the fixed income part of the portfolio, especially the US bond holdings. But the Stingy tool gives us a pretty good idea.

From 1988 to 2024 inclusive, 37 years in total, XBAL would have performed quite well.

An investor in the saving phase who deposited $1000 in a TFSA in 1988, whose returns are not subject to taxes, would have about $19,000 at the end of 2024, a compound annual return of 8.3%. The real, after inflation end value was about $6,200, a solid real return of 5.9%.

For a retiree withdrawing 4% of the year-end portfolio value every year, XBAL still gained and grew. $1000 of XBAL at the start of retirement would have grown to $1800 despite annual withdrawals. It is also quite interesting that only in one year - 1990, the 3rd year of withdrawals - did the real after-inflation withdrawal dip below the first year withdrawal.

Unfortunately the Stingy Investor tool does not include inflation data before 1980, so the period of high inflation, and its effects on real after-inflation returns, which is something that really matters, cannot be examined.

Such a portfolio has value. Not everyone can, or should be, an investor who spends time and effort on investing. That's why our post's title says the portfolio is both inspired by, and intended for, someone like Albert Einstein. After all, could anyone think that Einstein, or the world, would have been better off, if he had applied his time to investing at the expense of physics?

Disclaimer: This post is my opinion only and should not be construed as investment advice. Readers should be aware that the above comparisons are not an investment recommendation. They rest on other sources, whose accuracy is not guaranteed and the article may not interpret such results correctly. Do your homework before making any decisions and consider consulting a professional advisor.

This post is dedicated to my daughters, accomplished professionals who are plenty smart enough but whose time is better spent on their other endeavours instead of investing.

Sunday, 12 October 2025

Retirement Investment and Income: the Ultra-Simple Plan

Following on our last post, here's an even simpler strategy! The aim is that everyone can do this and it will perform fine.

You are about to retire or are in early retirement and want to set up your finances with the utmost simplicity to ensure you will have enough money for as long as you live. 

Step 1 Cover your essential living expenses

Take your bank and credit card statements for the past 12 months. Go through the spending. Eliminate the big-ticket non-essential luxury items, like holidays abroad, that you could defer for years or never do at all. What's left is food, rent, clothing, house repairs and insurance, taxes, car payments and repairs, dentist, physio, eating out, loan repayments, all the spending of your existing life. It's your basic lifestyle, and you want to maintain it, right? That is the essential income goal.

Now comes the key principle: you will match the critical spending with income that is similar in terms of: lasting as long as you live; security and safety or guarantee of payment; automaticness - it's deposited in your bank account without you needing to do anything after setting it up; frequency, i.e. every month.

Next, list any income you have that meets those criteria. A Defined Benefit pension does. Obtain your retirement payment income amount from your employer or pension plan administrator. The Canada Pension Plan (CPP) meets the criteria, as does Old Age Security (OAS), both paid by the federal government. In Quebec, the Province has its own identical parallel substitute version of CPP (politics!). If you have not yet asked to start CPP and OAS, see whether you can get your essential income with the annuity purchase described below first. Defer CPP and OAS to age 71 if you possibly can, it's very worthwhile since you get a lot more income later that fights the inflation devil.

A Defined Contribution plan does not, it's not a pension. A pension is regular guaranteed income for your lifetime. A DC plan is the same as an RRSP (we'll use this as shorthand as the same goes for all the related RRIF, LIF, LRIF account types) in this regard. Same for a TFSA. They're just accounts holding savings and investments.

Find a local life insurance agent who is licensed to sell annuities. Find one that sells annuities from all the insurance companies, not just one. Get quotes for a single life, if you're single, joint life if you're married. Take the version with no guarantee period of years to pay out. Take the highest income quote. Buy enough, to a maximum amount per insurance company of $100,000, to cover your annual essential expenses.

Note: If that totally depletes your savings, you obviously have too high spending, too high "essential" expenses. Fixing that might be possible in multiple different ways: stricter definition of essential expenses, working longer, taking CPP and/or OAS right away, house downsizing. In this version of a retirement plan, it's assumed you have saved enough. The task is to make sure it lasts as long as you do. Step 1 is complete, more or less. There's always a limitation, in this case it's inflation, which will inexorably eat away at the purchasing power of the fixed-for-life annuity payments. On to step 2.

Step 2 Investing during retirement

First, the one-time setup process. Unless you have a whopping bank balance, you probably already have an RRSP and/or a TFSA account. If such accounts are not already in place at the discount brokerage arm of the bank you deal with, go open one or both. If already open, sell all the holdings and transfer the entire cash balances to the discount brokerage account RRSP or TFSA. If it's an RRSP be careful to transfer direct and not to withdraw the cash as that would entail a large income tax bill.

If you have an ordinary taxable account as well, it's probably better not to sell all the holdings if there are significant unrealized capital gains. Those capital gains mean that those investments have been reasonably successful, so there's no crying need to ditch them. Selling will provoke capital gains income tax to pay. Always defer taxes if you can. If the ordinary account total of unrealized gains and losses is small, then by all means sell all the holdings and transfer the cash over to the discount broker account.

Once all the cash is over at the same institution's discount brokerage accounts, if any of it is in an ordinary taxable account, check if you if you have any remaining contribution room for your RRSP (shown on your tax return notice of assessment) or your TFSA (total cumulative max up to 2025 of $102,000 minus whatever you have already contributed over the years). Fill the RRSP first, then the TFSA, then the surplus stays in the ordinary account.

Next, in each of the RRSP, TFSA and ordinary accounts, use all the cash to buy at the then current market price, this Exchange Traded Fund: iShares Core Growth ETF Portfolio with TSX trading symbol XGRO.

Ta da, you are done. That is the one and only investment you will ever need to own. There are other fancier more sophisticated investment portfolio strategies, especially as your investable money climbs. But they take more time, effort and attention. At $100k to invest just do this, it is not worth the hassle to do more. Even double it to $200k or triple the amount, it's still a very good investment strategy..

Sign up for the broker's optional Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRIP). Cash received from distributions is automatically used to buy more shares of XGRO.

Receive more money to invest? Buy more XGRO in the tax-advantaged RRSP/TFSA accounts first.

Want to withdraw money to spend on discretionary items or through forced withdrawals after age 71 from RRSP-type accounts? Sell some XGRO.

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Why this income and investing strategy?

  • Simplicity - essential income is deposited automatically every month; only one tax slip to fill out; no tricky involved decisions for ever after during your life

  • Guaranteed income for life - no worries about market ups and downs for your essential living expenses; no worries about how long you will live and trying to figure out how much you can spend each year

  • Peace of mind - financial worries are drastically lessened, you can focus more on meaningful aspects of life; statistically, people with annuities live longer! Not being obliged to sell during a severe market downturn like the 2008 financial crisis makes riding it out much much less stressful

  • Legacy / inheritance funds - the XGRO fund provides for leaving an inheritance if you wish, since that is the part you do not absolutely require to live off

  • Inflation compensation - fixed annuities progressively lost value from inflation; even at the government annual 2% target, over 30 years of retirement it is huge; in the long term (say 10 years, to be conservative), equities do recover their value; that is why the fund choice is heavily slanted to equities - more equities means more long term portfolio growth

  • Portfolio growth - in addition, equities not only compensate for inflation, they provide real growth over time, which is what XGRO should do over years despite up and down bumpiness

  • Automatic & no decision - as we get older, some of us lose our mental faculties; dementia is an increasingly common old age retirement disease; fewer decision to make results in fewer bad decisions and should help reduce exploitative abuse; for those with power of attorney, it is easier to check and control finances; settling an estate is also far easier

  • Reasonable fees - at an annual 0.2%, XGRO's fees are not far above rock bottom fees of 0.05% for some of the individual funds, but they are a good trade-off for the convenience of portfolio management services, such as rebalancing and foreign exchange exposure and conversion. It is impressive value considering that XGRO, through the multiple sub-funds, allows us ordinary people investors, to own slices of more than 21700 different stocks and bonds. That very broad diversification reduces risk.

  • Non-critical negatives, just so you know - the downsides of XGRO are not so bad that they overwhelm the positives:

    • higher fees, as noted;

    • sub-optimal income tax structure - foreign equity funds within a RRSP/TFSA accounts pay non-recoverable (invisibly to the investor but it does inevitably occur!) foreign government witholding taxes; similarly having XGRO's bond holdings would be better split off in a RRSP/TFSA to help protect against taxation of interest income

    • missing real estate exposure - most standard classic portfolios include some portion of real estate holdings as a useful diversifying holding, but XGRO has none

    • non-adjustable proportions of holdings - XGRO maintains a 36% weight of its holdings in USA stocks and 21% in Canadian stocks; we would prefer a greater weight in Canadian stocks than in USA on the principle that money spent by a Canadian should mostly match up with Canadian sources, but that is my personal judgement

    • no low volatility fund holdings - it is a longggggg technical story but there is a good argument that ETFs which construct their portfolio holdings and weights by favouring stocks with lower day to day historical ups and downs of price, perform better than the market capitalization selected and weighted funds within XGRO; given that a retired person's objective is more wealth preservation than growth, lower volatility with the same returns is a desirable feature.

    • Missing gold as a holding - gold is an eternal store of wealth that assists with wealth preservation in certain circumstances; we would prefer to have a portion of the XGRO portfolio fund dedicated to gold.

What circumstances might make this a poor strategy?

  • Poor health and short life expectancy - Obviously, if you have terminal cancer and know you are going to die in a few months, handing over a large chuck of cash to an insurance company that you cannot get back makes no sense; annuities are priced fairly for the remaining life expectancy at your age; check out some online life expectancy calculators to your number based on various factors, like lifestyle, family history, current health - note that the results vary quite a bit

Disclaimer: This post is my opinion only and should not be construed as investment advice. Readers should be aware that the above comparisons are not an investment recommendation. They rest on other sources, whose accuracy is not guaranteed and the article may not interpret such results correctly. Do your homework before making any decisions and consider consulting a professional advisor.

Friday, 6 June 2025

The Reluctant Investor's Lifelong Portfolio - a Portfolio Inspired by, and for, Albert Einstein

"Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler." Albert Einstein
In a 30 May 2014 post we defined what a portfolio for a reluctant investor should do, and reviewed several alternatives that don't quite do the best job. We've updated the subsequent June 2014 post to June 2025. Happily, what we said then has been proven by eleven more years still to work fine!
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This is what we propose, the Reluctant Investor's Lifelong Portfolio and Investing Plan

1) Portfolio structure: The portfolio will consist of two funds -
2) Account setup: Start with a TFSA. Open a TFSA account at a discount broker. If there is less in total to invest than $102,000, which is the cumulative maximum contribution limit up to and including to 2025 that can be invested in a TFSA, put it all in the TFSA. When there is more than $102k to invest put the excess into an RRSP (another account that will need to be opened at a discount broker), up to the cumualtive unused contribution limit shown on tax assessment letter from the Canada Revenue Agency that it sends out after you have filed your taxes every year. It there is more than the total limits of TFSA plus RRSP to invest, open a taxable account.

3) Initial allocation to target: Within each account, buy equal amounts of both XQB and XIC.

4) Automate investing: Set up automatic transfers to contribute to the TFSA/RRSP/taxable account if in savings mode. XQB has the wonderful feature of being part of the Pre-authorized cash contribution plan at iShares, which is free and automatic, so sign up for the amount going into XQB.  Unfortunately, XIC is not part of the PACC so purchases of XIC you will have to do yourself. Leave the money going into XIC in cash until there is at least $1000 to invest. Less than a $1000 for a trade and the commissions start to add up too much and hurt investment returns.

Similarly, during retirement withdrawal when regular amounts are to come out, sign up for the Systematic withdrawal plan for XQB (also not available for XIC). You will have to sell the appropriate amount to leave approximately half each in XIC and XQB.

Note: Not all brokers participate in the PACC and SWP. Check out here the in/out listing of brokers, along with details and forms for all the plans, including the DRIP. If the broker does not do the PACC and SWP, you must carry out buy and sell transactions yourself.

Sign up for the Dividend reinvestment plan (DRIP) for both XIC and XQB. That way, the regular cash distributions will not sit idle and will get reinvested automatically and for free in XIC and XQB.

5) Rebalance: Once a year, perhaps on a birthday to remember more easily, check the latest monthly market values of XIC and XQB holdings totalled across all accounts. If either is more than 5% away from the target 50%, sell the excess amount of the greater value ETF and buy that amount of the lesser. If less than $1000 is at stake to be re-allocated, don't bother, the cost of trading commissions is not worth it.

In the same manner, any large lump sum contributions or withdrawals can be used to even up the 50% allocation to each ETF.
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Historical Performance - To see what kind of performance the Reluctant Investor Portfolio would have provided, we again turn to the Stingy Investor Asset Mixer tool. XIC's performance matches exactly with the tool's TSX Composite, while XQB lines up fairly well with All Canadian Bonds. (Note: Stingy Investor has a model portfolio it calls the Simply Canadian ETF Portfolio which has almost the same composition as our Reluctant Investor, i.e. we did not invent the idea but we are promoting it with a different name to emphasize its potential usefulness.)

From 1980 to 2024 inclusive, our portfolio performed quite well. Compared to more complicated and sophisticated alternatives, the portfolio trades off some performance and some volatility to gain simplicity and convenience.

For a retiree withdrawing 4% a year the worst down year was 2008, when it incurred a 17% loss. The portfolio had fully recovered its loss within two years. Over the whole 45 year time span, despite constant yearly withdrawals, the portfolio gained an average of 4.2% compounded per year and it never dropped below its retirement start date value despite a number of down years (12 out of 45).

For a saver, the fact of making no withdrawals reduces the worst 2008 down to only 13% and there were only 9 down years in total. Recovery from down years never took longer than two years. The compound return was a healthy 9% a year.

Unfortunately the Stingy Investor tool does not include inflation data before 1980, so the period of high inflation, and its effects on real after-inflation returns, which is what really matters, cannot be examined. From 1980 to 2024, the real return of the Reluctant Investor Portfolio was 5.7% compounded during the savings no-withdrawal phase, with only 10 years out of 45 showing a decline that never took longer than two years till recovery from a decline. When the added stress on the portfolio of a 4% annual withdrawal was included, the portfolio still managed an average gain of 1.5% annually, but had 15 down years, and a decline of 22.2% starting in 2008 that still has not been recaptured.

Thus, though there is no absolute assurance of never taking a loss by selling out at any time we believe the Reluctant Investor's Lifelong Portfolio is a pretty good balance of the objectives. Overall, we believe the solution works pretty well, delivering 80% or more of the benefits of more time-consuming and complicated investing.

Such a portfolio has value. Not everyone can, or should be, an investor who spends time and effort on investing. That's why our post's title says the portfolio is both inspired by, and intended for, someone like Albert Einstein. After all, could anyone think that Einstein, or the world, would have been better off, if he had applied his time to investing at the expense of physics?

Disclaimer: This post is my opinion only and should not be construed as investment advice. Readers should be aware that the above comparisons are not an investment recommendation. They rest on other sources, whose accuracy is not guaranteed and the article may not interpret such results correctly. Do your homework before making any decisions and consider consulting a professional advisor.

Sunday, 12 January 2025

Wind blows away capital, Solar burns it away, EVs run down the juice

 In his recent post on WUWT Why are Renewable Equipment Companies Such Poor Investments? Steve Goreham shows us that virtually no publicly traded companies making wind and solar equipment, electric vehicles, hydrogen battery cells or electrolyzers, or EV charging providers have been good investments. As a whole, based on the global Renewable Energy Industrial Index of the 30 largest global companies in the sector, investors would have made no money since 2006. Without the one giant blow-out winner - Tesla - there would have been big losses.

The reason he says is quite simply that none of these companies are financially viable profitable businesses. They have not been able to make money in general even with massive government subsidies. One commenter below the post notes the venerable Warren Buffett's pithy assessment of wind and solar: “without the subsidies and tax breaks, they just don’t make financial sense”. 

Goreham notes that the investor in the S&P 500, available through multiple low cost ETFs, would have quadrupled their capital. Therein lies the durable critical lesson for most of us small-guy investors. Recognizing that very few of us have the time, the smarts, the information or the interest to find the Tesla pot of gold, we are far better off to resist the latest investment fad and invest in broad whole of market ETFs. By their construction, indexes like the S&P 500 will incorporate winners like Tesla. Tesla is currently the 6th largest holding in that index. The many losers aren't there frittering away your capital at all. Sure, you won't be among the early now much richer investors in Tesla but you will be modestly richer and not poorer.

In Canada the current poster-boy glamour stock is Shopify. It has come from nowhere twenty years ago - the company did not even exist then. The company only went public in 2015. Yet it's now the second largest company by market cap in the dominant Canadian index, the S&P TSX60. Its stock price is extremely volatile and the PE ratio is an astronomical 97, i.e. it is priced for massive future growth. Want a piece of the action? Buy the stock directly itself ... or more cautiously, buy an index ETF like BlackRock's S&P TSX 60 (XIU) or Global X's offering (HXT).